LNG Is a Key Bridge to Hawaiʻi’s Decarbonized Future
A Bridge to a Renewables-Led Future
The next 20 years of energy development will be critical for O’ahu. Striking a balance between progress on decarbonization and reliable power supply is key for communities and businesses.
Hawaiʻi’s mandate for 100% of renewables by 2045 is state law, and it established Hawai’i as a national leader in climate action.
Within this framework, the choice of fuel for firming generation to partner with intermittent renewables on O’ahu is pivotal.
LNG offers a bridge to O’ahu’s decarbonized future. It can provide lower-emitting, more affordable and more reliable power than oil, and then transition out of the energy system by 2045.
The Options Available to Oʻahu
Oil-fired power, which Oʻahu currently uses for firming generation is expensive, high-emitting, and increasingly unreliable.
Oʻahu pays more than three times the U.S. average for power generation, while emitting nearly twice the national average per unit of electricity. Meanwhile, forced outage rates on Oʻahu, which is almost entirely from oil-fired power plants, have doubled in the past four years compared with the previous decade.
Renewables require reliable and flexible backup or “firming” generation, a role the antiquated, slow-ramping Kahe and Waiau plants can’t fill as Hawaiʻi works to meet its 2045 renewables targets.
1Range depends on capacity factor of Waiau repower. Lower end of range is a capacity factor of 74% (similar to natural gas-fired power plant), and higher end of range is a capacity factor of 40% (based on typical simple cycle combustion turbine capacity factor as baseload), assuming 40 years of operation; 2. Range depends on the level of maintenance capex required
Biofuels have emerged as a proposed firming fuel for Oʻahu, but they carry two major drawbacks: generating electricity from biofuels will cost at least 50% more than using oil, and real feedstock bottlenecks constrain both local and global biofuel supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that supplies of waste and residue oils and fats – the cheapest biofuel feedstocks – could be almost exhausted by 2030, pushing the industry to adopt more expensive production pathways to meet demand. That expected supply crunch would coincide with the 2029 expected start date of the proposed Waiau Repower project, which would use biofuels to generate electricity.
Without adequate low-cost biofuel supply to replace high-emitting oil-fired power, Hawaiʻi would depend on oil for back-up power generation longer, resulting in higher cumulative emissions through 2045 compared with natural gas. A gas-led transition – as proposed by JERA – accelerates emissions reductions while supporting integration of renewable power.
Switching to LNG will lower both the cost and the emissions of generating power compared with continuing to rely on oil or shifting to biofuels. JERA’s proposed modern gas-fired power plant will be able to start up and ramp its output up or down much more quickly than current oil-fired plants to balance real-time fluctuations in renewable generation.
This means gas-fired power can step up seamlessly when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing and step back easily when solar and wind are performing well.
Versatile Infrastructure for the Future
While LNG can provide always-available power, it won’t always be part of Oʻahu’s energy landscape.
LNG was identified by the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office’s Alternative Fuels, Repowering, and Energy Transition Study as a fuel that could be seamlessly phased out by 2045, while leaving Oʻahu with flexible and useful infrastructure. At least 90% of the infrastructure needed for Oʻahu’s conversion to gas-fired power will have a life beyond 2045 with long-term use or redeployment potential.
JERA’s proposed gas-fired power plant can be converted to run on cleaner fuels, such as hydrogen, as they emerge. The LNG receiving terminal is similarly flexible: it can import renewable natural gas (RNG) or other low-carbon fuels, and if LNG is no longer needed as Hawaiʻi’s energy mix evolves, the floating terminal itself can also be sold or redeployed elsewhere rather than becoming a stranded asset.
Global Lessons From the Energy Transition
Germany illustrates how a country can enjoy the benefits of LNG without locking itself into natural gas for the long-term.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 interrupted its primary natural gas supply, Germany has imported LNG to ensure adequate gas supply for its power system, avoiding a backslide into coal that would have undone its renewables and decarbonization progress. Gas-fired power displaced coal directly, reducing coal generation by 58%, while also supplying the flexible backup that let wind and solar increase their combined share in the power mix from 15% to 42% between 2014 and 2024, according to data from the IEA.
But Germany has also ensured that its LNG import licenses expire at the end of 2043, clearing the path for infrastructure to be repurposed for hydrogen or renewable gas imports ahead of a 2045 net zero target.
In Summary
JERA’s LNG-to-power proposal showcases how fossil fuel infrastructure can fill a specific and time-critical role, then be adapted to accelerate a decarbonized future.
By introducing gas-fired power, Oʻahu would be adding flexibility to support uptake of renewables – not locking in a long-term role for fossil fuels.
Related Myths & Facts
LNG will provide cleaner power for Hawaiʻi
